Hurricane Omar Updated Info from National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida

000
WTNT45 KNHC 151451
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z
SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A
RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND
RADAR SIGNATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS
BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE
THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18
HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.2N 67.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.9W 90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 61.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.7N 60.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 56.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 32.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Stay tuned to this blog for WEB CAMERA's and WEB CAMS from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as HURRICANE OMAR Moves in

HURRICANE OMAR Heading for Puerto Rico and The Virgin Islands

Hurricane Omar churned across the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday on a course that will take it near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the National Hurricane Center said.

Omar formed Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean and dumped heavy rain on the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao off the coast of Venezuela.

At 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, its center was about 265 miles (426 kilometers) south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

The storm was moving northeast at near 7 mph.

Omar's maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph (129 kilometers per hour), making it a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 15 miles from Omar's center. Tropical storm-force winds extended 105 miles from Omar's center, forecasters said.
"Omar would move through the northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Thursday," the hurricane center in Miami, Florida, said.

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A hurricane warning is in effect for several Leeward Islands, including the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra, St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis.

The island of Puerto Rico is under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch, but there could be a hurricane warning later Thursday, the hurricane center said.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat are under a tropical storm warning, meaning these locations could experience tropical storm conditions in the next 24 hours. iReport.com: Are you there? Tell us what you see

The storm's forecast track shows it heading into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean after crossing over the Virgin Islands -- possibly as a Category 2 hurricane -- late Wednesday or early Thursday. Hurricane tracks are subject to variation, however, and predictions can change.

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The storm is expected to dump up to 8 inches of rain over the Netherlands Antilles -- the chain of Caribbean islands off Venezuela's coast -- according to the NHC. Some areas could get 12 inches of rain.

Puerto Rico and some portions of the northern Leeward Islands, which include the Virgin Islands, could get up to 20 inches of rain, according to the forecast.

"These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," the hurricane center warned.

Also, the storm could produce large swells affecting the western and southern coasts of the Lesser Antilles -- the Caribbean islands that stretch from the Virgin Islands southward to the islands off Venezuela's coast.

The swells could cause beach erosion and damage coastal structures, the hurricane center said.

Omar is the 15th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.


The tropics remain active in the Caribbean and near Central America, as Hurricane Omar and Tropical Depression 16 continue to impact parts of the area.

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Hurricane Omar

Omar strengthened to a hurricane overnight, and continues moving northeast toward the northeastern Caribbean this morning. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Omar was located 285 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and was moving northeast at near 7 mph.

Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph near the center, making this a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible as Omar continues on a northeast track through tonight.

Local governments have posted hurricane watches and warnings as well as tropical storm watches and warnings for the islands in the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, as outer bands begin to impact the area. On the current forecast track, Omar should pass just east of Puerto Rico tonight into early Thursday.

You can view Omar's current project path by clicking here.

As a result, expect squally weather to increase into tonight, with strong winds possible near and to the east of the center, along with heavy rain. Flash flooding and mudslides can also be expected, along with increased waves.


Tropical Depression 16

Tropical Depression 16 (winds of 30 mph) remains disorganized, but continues to bring locally heavy rain to parts of Central America. As of 5 a.m. EDT, the center of the depression was located 95 miles east of Limon, Honduras; it was moving west at 6 mph.

If the depression can remain over open waters, it could strengthen to a tropical storm (named Paloma). As a result, local governments have issued tropical storm watches and warnings for portions of the Nicaragua and Belize coasts.

Regardless if it is classified as a tropical storm, the primary threat to parts of Central America, through late week, will be heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides, especially given its slow movement.

HURRICANE NORBERT WEB CAMERAS - PACIFIC GULF BAJA COAST OF MEXICO

HURRICANE NORBERT is Heading towards the Baja Coast of Mexico. Veracruz seems to

be the main

MORE MEXICO PACIFIC COAST BAJA PENINSULA WEB CAMERA'S BELOW. Camera's will be

updated as they are found

Hurricane Norbert has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane and should continue to grow as it heads toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.
Your Ad Here	Forecasters expect Norbert to make landfall Saturday along the southern Baja California peninsula. But hurricane forecasts are unpredictable and can change considerably. At 5 a.m. ET Wednesday, Hurricane Norbert was about 470 miles (755 kilometers) south of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula, the hurricane center said.
	MORE HOUSTON WEB CAM's show the DAMAGE of HURRICANE IKE  Your Ad Here
Its maximum sustained wind speeds had increased to near 115 mph (185 kph). The hurricane formed Monday night. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco weakened to a tropical depression Tuesday, hours after making landfall over central Mexico's Gulf Coast. Marco or its remnants could dump 5 inches of rain over eastern portions of central Mexico, the hurricane center said
	NOTE: Except for the top live player, these camera's are updated snapshots. To see the latest Camera View, refresh your Browser Page
	Your Ad Here NOTE: Except for the top live player, these camera's are updated snapshots. To see the latest Camera View, refresh your Browser Page
	Windows were ripped out of office buildings in downtown Houston. At the 75-story JPMorganChase tower, the tallest building in Texas, curtains could be seen flapping in the breeze and glass shards littered the streets below. Power was out in much of Houston, although the lights stayed on in the city's huge medical center, a sprawling complex with about a dozen hospitals that attract patients from around the world.

HURRICANE NORBERT UPDATE - Category 2 to 3 Heading Towards Veracruz

Hurricane Norbert strengthened into a powerful Category 2 storm over the Pacific Ocean and forecasters warned that it could reach Mexico's Baja California peninsula by the weekend.

The hurricane was expected to become a major Category 3 storm on Wednesday and then turn toward the northeast on Thursday on a path that could take it over the southern Baja peninsula and the Mexican mainland, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

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Forecasters said Norbert was moving west-northwest at 10 mph (17 kph) and by late Tuesday was located 500 miles (805 kilometers) south of Baja California's tip. It had sustained winds of near 105 mph (165 kph).

Norbert is the seventh hurricane of the east Pacific season.

On Mexico's Gulf coast, Marco weakened into a tropical depression late Tuesday after slamming into land as a tropical storm with near hurricane-force winds.

The storm hit land about 55 miles (90 kilometers) north of Veracruz.

Mexico's state oil company had shutdown of some oil platforms in the gulf and evacuated some 3,000 people ahead of Marco's arrival.

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Marco was expected to dissipate overnight as it moved over Mexico's mountainous terrain, but forecasters said rains of up to 5 inches could still unleash mudslides.

Marco appeared to have largely spared water-logged southern Veracruz state, where rain-swollen rivers jumped their banks, leaving the towns of Minatitlan and Hidalgotitlan under 10 feet (3 meters) of water last week.

Veracruz state authorities closed schools and set up some 200 shelters, while soldiers and rescue officials bused people from low-lying communities.

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In northern Veracruz state, authorities evacuated a hospital in the town of Misantla, where two overflowing rivers threatened with flooding it.

Newest Hurricane Developments - MARCO and NORBERT

Tropical Storm Marco was closing in on Mexico's coast early Tuesday and threatened to hit with near-hurricane strength winds later in the day.

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Marco was a small tropical storm with winds extending out only up to 15 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the country's state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Monday it had evacuated 33 workers from four offshore platforms, closed six wells and shut down a natural gas processing plant in Veracruz state ahead of Marco's arrival.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were in effect for Mexico's Gulf Coast from Cabo Rojo south to Veracruz. A tropical storm warning for areas south of Veracruz was canceled early Tuesday.

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Marco had maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The storm was centered about 105 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, at 5 a.m. EDT Tuesday. The storm was moving west-northwest near 8 mph.

Mexico's Communications and Transportation Department on Monday ordered the closure to small vessels of the Gulf ports of Nautla and Alvarado.

Veracruz state authorities were setting up shelters and preparing to evacuate communities in low-lying areas still trying to recovering from heavy flooding caused by heavy rains last week.

Ranulfo Marquez, the state's top civil protection official, said 68 shelters would remain open in southern Veracruz, where rain-swollen rivers jumped their banks leaving the towns of Minatitlan and Hidalgotitlan under 10 feet.

"This will be a strong phenomenon (for the state), especially taking into account that we already have 43 rivers that have overflowed," Marquez said.

Meanwhile, on the other side of Mexico, Norbert strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane over the Pacific Ocean late Monday but forecasters said it was not expected to threaten land. The hurricane center said the hurricane was located about 585 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.

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Norbert — the seventh hurricane of the Pacific season — had maximum sustained winds near 75 mph and was moving west-northwest at 8 mph.


The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Norbert has formed far off Mexico's Pacific coast.

The center says Norbert is centered 315 miles (510 kilometers) south-southwest of the port city of Manzanillo, and is not expected to threaten land.

The storm had winds of 75 mph (120 kph) Monday night. Forecasters said Norbert was moving west-northwest at 8 mph (13 kph) and was expected to continue that path over the next two days.

Norbert is seventh hurricane of the east Pacific.