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Friday, September 26, 2008

HURRICANE KYLE Heading towards NEW BRUNSWICK

New Brunswick appears set to bear the brunt of a tropical storm that will be "just before hurricane force" when it hits the Maritime provinces late Sunday.

Environment Canada predicted Friday that tropical storm Kyle will pass directly over Saint John, N.B., bringing up to 100 millimetres of rain and sustained winds of 90 kilometres an hour.





The forecast says there's a possibility of coastal gusts reaching 120 kilometres an hour in southwestern New Brunswick.

Forecaster Peter Bowyer of the Canadian Hurricane Centre said that Kyle is difficult to predict because its strength may be boosted by weather in the upper atmosphere.

He said it's also possible the force of the winds and rain will be muted by the cool waters Kyle is expected to encounter over the Gulf of Maine.

"The details still elude us because it's all about what's happening in the higher part of the atmosphere as the storm gets a lot closer," said Bowyer, adding the centre has decided to take "the pessimistic scenario."

A system moving into the Maritimes ahead of Kyle will bring rain beginning late Friday and persisting through Saturday, with amounts between 10 and 40 millimetres.

Kyle is expected to enter the region on late Sunday, and add to the deluge in New Brunswick, southwestern Nova Scotia and western portions of Prince Edward Island.





The storm diminishes further to the east, meaning Halifax and Charlottetown will likely see lighter winds and rain, said Bowyer.

All together, weekend rainfall totals for the Maritimes could be somewhere between 80 and 140 millimetres in some locations - depending on Kyle's ultimate path.

On Friday afternoon, the tropical storm was located about 500 kilometres southwest of Bermuda, tracking north toward the Maritime provinces.

The Canadian Red Cross issued a news release saying it was putting its volunteers on standby, as the storm is forecast to make landfall on the fifth anniversary of hurricane Juan.

"Being on standby essentially means being prepared, checking equipment and supplies . . . especially since Kyle could pack some hurricane-force wind gusts," said Bill Lawlor, Red Cross director of disaster management for Atlantic Canada.

"The Red Cross is placing on standby about 650 disaster management volunteers."





The storm is expected to have passed through the Maritimes by Monday afternoon, with its remnants bringing rain and winds to Newfoundland and Labrador.

Bowyer said that Kyle is a fundamentally different storm from hurricane Juan, which started east of Bermuda and sustained its strength when it moved over unusually warm North Atlantic waters.

"Other than the fact they're five years apart, that's the only similarity. They're completely different entities," he said.

He said this time, the storm will move over cooler water, which should reduce its strength.

Nonetheless, Bowyer said "all of New Brunswick needs to be prepared for this storm."

He said the storm isn't expected to bring tidal surges that will threaten the coast.

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