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Tuesday, September 2, 2008

HURRICANE TRACKER UPDATE - GUSTAV Causes Floods, HANNAH Looms and IKE Continues to Grow Now Josephine

Tropical Storm Hanna lost her Hurricane status last night, but she’s slowly regaining strength and following a familiar course toward the coast of South Carolina, according to the most recent advisory from the National Weather Service.

The middle of the storm’s forecast track currently has it making landfall just north of Charleston late Friday night (almost precisely where Hurricane Hugo struck in 1989), although there is still a possibility it could strike further south or miss a continental impact altogether.

Obviously, those prospects grow increasingly remote the closer the storm gets.





Forecasters anticipate Hanna developing sustained winds of over 100 miles per hour over the next few days, which would make her a dangerous Category 3 storm.

Meanwhile, further out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ike has formed and is currently following a Hugo-esque track as well.

For an inside look at how South Carolina officials prepare for these potential disasters, take a look at this story, which details the preparations undertaken by the governor and other state agencies.


Hurricane Hannah Projected Path
The Hurricane Hannah projected path is a cause for concern today as people, weary from a very tough hurricane season, prepare for yet another onslaught.

Fortunate for folks in the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Hannah should not be making a stop in their neck of the woods. Instead, the projected path of Hurricane Hannah shows it hitting the East Coast.

Hannah is currently a Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 75mph. The Bahamian government has already issued a hurricane warning for Central and Southeastern Bahamas.





If Hannah hits in the Bahamas and stays on its' current projected course, it would end up affecting Florida, Georgia and possibly North Carolina. This news has officials in those states concerned.

Relief agencies are now unsure of how to allocate resources in several southern states. Hurricane Gustav is still active and now Hurricane Hannah is threatening further damage.

Some people are predicting that Hannah might make landfall by Friday on the South-Carolina/Georgia border, but affects are expected to be minimal.





""A few of the extreme outer bands (of rain) might make it into the area. ..." he said. "Could see some gusty winds. Breezy conditions."

After a late Monday morning landfall on the coast of southeast Louisiana, Hurricane Gustav weakened to a tropical storm late Monday night and a tropical depression this morning, but is still spinning through and soaking Louisiana.

As of 4 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Gustav was headed across western Louisiana; about 135 miles northwest of Lafayette. It is moving to the northwest at about 10 mph. Its forward speed will begin to decrease as it heads toward western Louisiana and northeastern Texas today and tonight.

Storm reports from the National Weather Service indicate that a 4-6 foot storm surge occurred along the western panhandle of Florida. A storm surge of 6-8 feet occurred along the Mississippi coast.

The focus of Gustav has shifted from wind and surge to rainfall and tornadoes. Steering currents will weaken which will allow Gustav to slow down and eventually become nearly stationary over northeastern Texas. This stall will aid in producing tremendous rainfall amounts; similar to what was experienced with Fay for some localized spots. The heaviest rain will be focused over the Ark-La-Tex; where Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana border each other. A few tornadoes are possible in the Mississippi Delta today as well.

Hurricane Hanna

In the Atlantic, Hanna has temporarily weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. It was centered over the southeastern Bahamas about 385 miles SE of Nassau.

Hurricane warnings are posted for the central and southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hanna was drifting to the west near 2 miles per hour, with a slow and erratic drift expected to continue today. Tomorrow, a gradual northwest turn and increase in forward speed toward the central Bahamas is expected to begin along with re-intensification.

View the latest projected path for Hanna.

Hanna is expected to produce 8-12 inches of rain over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Some places could get up to 20 inches. Heavy rain is also possible into far eastern Cuba and northern Hispaniola, where up to 8 inches of rain are possible in the high terrain.

The storm already has begun to churn the ocean waters off the Southeast coast. On Sunday and Monday, numerous rescues by lifeguards were carried out along the beaches of South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina all due to the dangerous rip currents. The high rip current threat will last through the week.

Though Gustav is still on people's minds, coastal residents of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should all monitor the track and development of Hurricane Hanna. By Friday, it may be nearing the Southeast U.S. coast. Residents in the Northeastern U.S. should also pay close attention because of the potential for heavy rain coming from Hanna late in the week or during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Ike

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Ike, the ninth tropical storm of the season, continues its westward trek. It is located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Top winds are near 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Ike will initially head west or west-northwest over the course of this week. It is forecast to become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Depression 10

A tropical wave that emerged from the African Coast yesterday has formed into Tropical Depression 10 this morning. It is located about 170 miles south-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Top winds are near 35 miles per hour, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm (Josephine) later today and into a hurricane later by the weekend.

It is expected to remain well south of the Cape Verde Islands today, moving away from them tonight on a west and west-northwest track.

Eastern Pacific

A well organized area of showers and thunderstorms about 325 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, is in an area conducive for developement and could become a tropical depression in the next day or two.





Josephine Bulletin

WTNT35 KNHC 021449
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

...TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.2 N...25.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

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